Balochistan- a ray of hope for reconciliation?

The news of the devastating earthquake in Balochistan which killed hundreds and made thousands homeless brought to the international spotlight, a glimpse of a province which has been exploited rather than rewarded for the benefits that it has accrued upon us all, with pictures of the weak-structured houses sprawled across the newspapers worldwide.

The government has in the past provided little resources towards social welfare of its inhabitants in comparison with other provinces. People in Balochistan rightly blame the federal government for their plight and point out that the benefits derived from the province's natural wealth have not been returned to it. This province is the richest in natural resources, including gold, silver, copper, oil, natural gas, iron ore and uranium. It supplies natural gas to the whole of the country yet three quarters of the province does not have the access to natural gas. Sui is the area from where natural gas is being supplied but Sui is the one of the worst affected areas of military operations since long. The Government of Pakistan pays a meager percentage of the total income from natural resources as royalty to Balochistan, much of it ending up with the few but powerful chieftains, many of whom are oblivious of the plight of the ordinary people and social development and uplift of Balochistan and spend little for this cause.

Baloch people also suffer from poverty. According to the Social Policy and Development Centre (SPDC), poverty levels are the highest in this largest province. Every second person in Balochistan lives below the poverty line. Only 50 percent of the province's seven million people have access to clean drinking water, only half the children attend primary schools and only a third of children between 12 and 23 months are immunised, according to the SPDC.

Due to constant resort to military operations by civilian and military rule alike, thousands have disappeared since their arrest and languish in jail which adds to the sense of desperation in the province. Although there is much debate over the Indian involvement and support to separatist groups but not much research is conducted over how to alienate these groups and reconcile Balochis into Pakistan by removing their genuine grieviences and force is so often chosen as an easy option, only for a return to the negotiating table once more with even greater polarisation and resentment in the minds of ordinary Balochs. The allocation of area to the military in the province has increased the sense of hatred for khakis in the minds of many Balochs.

There are many other issues over which the Balochs have raised their concerns in a civilized way but no lasting solutions have been provided to many. To state a few, the federal government’s policy of issuing licences to domestic and international trawlers for fishing in Balochistan’s waters has been alleged to harm the interests of local fishermen in the province. Similarly, it was alleged by members of Balochistan Assembly in 2006 that the management of the Gwadar Seaport Authority had shifted the assets of the Gwadar port to Karachi, without informing the provincial government. It was unfortunate that what was guaranteed under the constitution had to be stated in the form of a resolution in the same year when the Balochistan Assembly unanimously adopted a resolution on Friday demanding royalty for the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline.

The setting up of the Balochistan Reconciliation Committee by President Asif Ali Zardari can prove to be an important step to reverse the excesses of the past. Although all political elements, both inside Balochistan and outside, may be suspicious of this move at present but if, as pledged by Mr. Zardari on Thursday during a meeting held under the auspices of the special committee that Balochs would be provided their due rights including the first right to its resources is indeed implemented, it would be hard for these elements to stay away from this positive initiative by a man, who unlike his predecessor, is a representative of a political party which has roots in the other three provinces. It was encouraging that Mr. Zardari followed up on his apology to the province for its sufferings by setting up such a committee but his real challenge lies in how he devolves a plan to resolve this difficult issue which has years of historical tensions behind it not least the growing acrimony he may have to face from the ‘establishment’ as well as the other provinces who may not be as forthcoming in this regard. This would be the crunch issue for him and if he is able to reach a consensual decision with most of the stakeholders (as there would certainly be dissenters), it would be a momentous description of his tenure and silent his critics.

The name of the committee is self-explanatory- there is a need for reconciliation between the largest, yet most neglected province of the motherland. These candid admissions, apologetic tones and concrete steps are crucial as time is running short and the enemies at the gate would be the ones to benefit the most if attempts to mend our fence fails. Deterrence is not merely achieved through nuclear tests, long-range missiles, strong international coalitions or even a sustainable economy. Only if a country is strong from within with harmonious relations between different ethnic groups and provincial factions can it continue to subsist as a single enterprise and face hostile borders and survive economic meltdowns.

Accord in the Parliament

The joint session of the two Houses adopted a ‘fit for all’ resolution which somewhat encompass the government’s present strategy of continuing with the military operations as well as the opposition’s stand, led by PML(N), which calls for seizure of operations and negotiations leading to a peace settlement. It needed no Pirzada or constitutional expert to figure out a way to break the deadlock between opposing views on the policy on tribal areas and militants. Both the government’s view and the opposition’s were included in the final draft by a Committee which was formed specifically for this issue. Whether it can be called a consensus or a document full of contradictions would be determined through the political bickering which would follow soon afterwards, the focal point of which would be as to the ‘real intent’ of the vague and broad resolution.

It was surprising to note that the House fell in line and voted unanimously in favour of a resolution when all signs of discord over policy issue were visible between the PPP plus its coalition partners on one hand and the PML(N) headed block, which had threatened to move its own resolution just a few days ago on the other. An editorial had captioned the session: ‘A dangerous lack of consensus’, just a day earlier.

Media pundits and experts had predicted a deadlock over the issue since the session was being criticized for being more of a military debriefing affair rather than outlining the policy of the present government in detail on how it sought to put up its case of ‘ownership of the war’ by Pakistan as well as detailed progressive approaches it had planned to achieve the desired objectives, which were also to be defined by the government itself. Sherry Rehman, Information Minister had to participate in the session, having been chosen by the government for the purpose, to dispel this impression and clarify the position of the government over the matter. She reiterated that the government was following a three pronged strategy, namely political dialogue, socio-economic uplift and the use of military force.

However this missed the important points requiring the scrutiny of key questions by an elected body for the first time since our alliance with the U.S. in the so-called ‘war on terror’; some of which being: Who in fact are the Taliban and like-minded militant organizations some of whom are not so well-organized? Why were they ‘Pakistan’s enemies’? Whether we were fighting them at our own behest or at someone’s instance? This latter question requires an in-depth analysis of the Taliban movement as well as the role of the government in promoting the cause it stood for during the 1980s as well as throughout 1990s. Crucially, the role of these elements leading up to 9/11 and the early period beyond it when Afghanistan was invaded needed detailed presentation. The period which was most important namely when a decision was made to break links with the Afghani Taliban required a studious debriefing and analysis including its repercussions to date.

Since the government now has access to classified documents and meeting minutes which reveal the extent and nature of the American interaction with the Musharraf regime and the concessions and approvals it bestowed upon it including extradition of its nationals to Guantanamo, the time was more appropriate than ever to reveal the agreements and concessions, including the alleged tacit approvals in favour of NATO and American drone attacks across the Durand Line. It should have been clarified which of the agreements are still in place or were renewed since the PPP-led government took power. Rather than condemning territorial violations, the resolution calls upon the government to ‘deal with it effectively’.

At a time when the world has since long looked down at the offensive and degrading treatment of prisoners at Guantanamo and revelations of inhuman interrogative methods used upon them like water boarding surfacing, the time was apt for a call for a return of Pakistani citizens who await justice in this ‘prison’. The deeply flawed system has been criticized by even former prosecutors who accept that the much evidence which has substantial bearing upon the defence of the detainees is suppressed during trials and subsequent reviews which makes a conviction or upholding of a conviction upon review highly likely. Yet the Pakistani parliament had no mention of it in the resolution and the Government Minister had overlooked this important point. It would be too optimistic to suggest that the Pakistani detainees may have returned as a result of such a resolution passed by our Parliament but the families of the missing people would have been relieved somewhat upon hearing that the representative body had started owning the prisoners who were sold for a few million dollars and for a change those at the helm of affairs were not turning their backs on them as if they are a ghost from the past, never to be heard from.

The contents of the resolution passed is more like a promising opinion of the Parliament that in the future, politicians from opposing factions would dilate upon a phase oriented policy. One hopes that the formation of the Special Committee for follow up could lead to such a move in the future. A study should also be commissioned which focuses on the geo-strategic conditions leading up to the participation of Pakistan in events which eventually led to the inflammation to the militant organizations who easily identified any abettor to American designs in the region as their enemy much like the Taliban who ruled Kabul declared us when we allowed our intelligence services and airbases to be used for the successful overthrow of the Taliban regime from Afghanistan. It is imperative that the longer term implications of our continued participation be gauged and monitored with recourse to outcomes. It would not be a bad start to define our objectives emphasizing our interest in the conflict of ideologies and exploring the prospects for reconciling those who feel disillusioned or forced to join extremism and use of violence substantially aided by the pro-Israel and imperialist policies of the U.S. which seem inequitable to many Muslims.

There is a need to improve upon the dangerous law and order situation which makes the common man insecure, further imperils our already weak economy and shatters the confidence of investors. The level and expertise of security and intelligence services should be markedly enhanced and brought at a level to cope up with the increase of suicide and bomb attacks in the major cities of late.

Merely providing Chinese AK-47s to the rifle-bearing tribesmen or ‘lashkars’ as they are more fondly called will not do to the trick since the tribesmen have limited influence and following in their sphere and are in a weak position against the well organized and well supplied Taliban who brandish latest weapons systems. The hesitance of the U.S. to provide the logistical and military support in the way that it used to do in the past is a severe handicap (and quite recently as happened in Iraq) is a stark reminder of the issue-based ‘friendship’ of the U.S. with Pakistan which has more often been self serving for the U.S. and corrupt leaders of the past. An independent foreign policy, as urged in the resolution must be pursued and relations must be expanded with other countries to counter the increasing influence that the U.S. asserts over us due to our over-dependence on it for aid and military supplies.

An economic meltdown- no questions asked?

With declining foreign currency reserves estimated at around $ 7.5 billion and a rupee which is weakening itself against the dollar at a staggering pace, Pakistan has all eyes on lenders and client states for deferral of payments to avoid a default-like situation. The trade deficit is alarmingly high at just over $ 2 billion (recorded for September). At this pace, around a billion dollar is required per month out of the dwindling foreign reserves to help meet the balance of payment. With State Bank intervening to control the fall of rupee against the dollar precipitously, the repercussions in terms of state borrowings should not be discarded whilst studying any rescue plan or aid package to which we have become accustomed to over the last two decades in particular. Increase in the global oil price has been virtually passed to the consumers which have added to the cost of transportation, production as well as the cost of living for many. The energy shortfall has certainly not helped matters much and the longer term implications on our productivity are believed to be severe.

For an ordinary man, at the end of the day it is the inflation rate, at a whooping 25 percent, which matters the most since it severely limits the decisions that he makes for himself and his family. With capital outflows and reduction of expenses and manpower by settled entrepreneurs, SMLB’s (small, medium and large businesses) and industrialists becoming apparent in many sectors it is likely that many people have added, with many more to follow, to an unacceptable proportion of the population that is unemployed. Add to this, the worsening law and order situation and the increase in the crime rate in urban and rural areas with different degree over the same period of the year regardless of these economic conditions that we face and we may see a percentage of those who face unemployed engaged in illicit and violent activities and it will be an instance of failure by the society and the state in general to provide them with a better future which they deserve or at least what they thought they so deserved.

If the government is to be believed, the financial woes of the state, which it has a legitimate claim to govern, were inherited and a result of the dubious economic policies of the Musharraf era with rampant corruption and nepotism. However, all talks of accountability and an effort to evaluate his policies fall on deaf ears or met with the ‘defence’ of ‘reconciliation’ by the government as has the most recent one by the opposition, although it was in the context of his ‘secret agreements’ with the U.S. and concessions he granted to NATO forces without conducting any comprehensive policy appraisals or benefiting the state of Pakistan in a manner which may have been the outcome of a just and equitable negotiation rather than a simple surrender to demands unconditionally without recourse to the effect in the longer run.

‘Reconciliation’ or whatever it seems to suggest, has been used as a blanket cover to protect Mr. Musharraf and his team from the process of accountability which in turn strengthens democracy and promotes transparency as well as provides a check against ‘bad governance’ and corruption. The government’s answer: Mr. Gillani’s ‘forward-looking’ approach which in essence implies: “Forget all past malpractices, lets start afresh”. The question that begs an answer then is: “Is this not a vicious cycle that would never stop and hence no one would be deemed to be accountable as public official over bad governance ever?” A leading English daily’s editorial on Friday lends support to Mr. Gillani’s view, albeit on a different and a worrisome argument. In essence it suggests that since the opposition had rejected Musharraf as a legitimate ruler, it was estopped from questioning his conduct as the ruler! There is a difference between a de facto and de jure ruler for a start and it is amazing how such crude distinctions are overlooked. To put it a slightly different way rather simply, would be to understand that one can oppose one’s legitimacy to rule as well as the actions one took whilst doing so. There is no contradiction in such a view but to the contrary they are supplementary in nature.

In the present economic context for example, had some initiatives been undertaken to promote industrialization and boosting exports during the Musharraf-era instead of for example spending billions in failed campaigning and wasted expenditure in the run up to the elections of 2008, the falling rupee may have been a blessing in disguise for the introduction of our goods in the international market (keeping apart the present international financial crises in some rich markets which is limiting the spending spree of those countries).
As if this was not enough, Pakistan has now complained to the heads of international financial institutions and development partners that the economic cost caused by the war on terror in Pakistan is unbearable level with the major portion of the war being born by it alone. Mr. Tareen, the new Finance Adviser has stated that Pakistan might be amongst the few countries that had successfully adjusted to the unprecedented increases in the prices by eliminating nearly all the subsidies. He stated that the country was fighting a rising inflation by adjusting the interest rates and by containing the monetary growth. However he failed to mention that the revised growth rate for next year, which is down by more than half of the predicted level, had severely limited our capacity to meet the inflation challenge through adjustment of interest rate alone.

On one hand we state the ‘war’ is Pakistan’s own- intended audience is domestic. Yet we seek aid from the global community and the West, particularly the U.S. crying that we are conducting this ‘war’ doing it as an ally and therefore the cost must be shared. What we suggest is either that the people are foolish enough to believe different things at different times or that we are not bound by our own words, which may be changed at different times. The question of policy over the ‘war’ which the joint session of parliament seems to focus and address is secondary. We must first locate and eliminate the contradictions from within ourselves. More urgently, we must await once more that the international loans from ‘friends’ and ‘friendly organizations’ would profit once more through increasing their stake in Pakistan and we are rescued by them to avoid yet another ‘default’. Without conducting ourselves transparently backed by the threat of accountability, the ‘economic meltdowns’ are likely to recur.